The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, has evolved into a multifaceted conflict with various international powers exerting influence over the outcome. Among these powers, Iran and Russia have played critical roles, aligning themselves with the Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, in the battle against various rebel groups. One of the most prominent factions opposing Assad’s regime is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist militant group primarily based in Idlib province.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, originally formed as Jabhat al-Nusra, has become a powerful force in northern Syria. Despite their shared opposition to Assad, HTS’s extreme ideology has put it at odds with both the Syrian government and the external actors supporting it, including Iran and Russia. The strategic goals of these countries, which involve maintaining stability in Syria and curbing the influence of jihadist groups, often collide with the ambitions of HTS, leading to a tense and complex geopolitical environment.

This article delves into the strategic interests of Syria, Iran, and Russia in the Syrian Civil War and their military and political confrontation with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. We will examine the key developments, the military dynamics, and the broader implications for the Middle East region.

The Role of Russia in Syria’s Civil War: A Strategic Ally to Assad

Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict began in 2015 when it launched a military intervention to support President Bashar al-Assad’s government. As a long-time ally of Syria, Russia’s interests in the region are rooted in maintaining its influence in the Middle East and securing its military presence in the Mediterranean. Russian forces, particularly through airstrikes, artillery, and military advisors, have significantly weakened opposition forces, including HTS.

Russia’s support for the Assad regime is driven by both military and geopolitical considerations. The Russian government views the survival of Assad as crucial for maintaining its foothold in Syria, where it operates key military bases, including the naval facility in Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase. These bases provide Russia with a strategic advantage in the region and allow it to project power across the Eastern Mediterranean.

Moreover, Russia’s involvement is closely linked to counterterrorism efforts, with HTS being one of the main groups targeted by Russian airstrikes and ground operations. Moscow views HTS and other jihadist factions as destabilizing forces that threaten both Syrian sovereignty and regional security. As part of its strategy, Russia has sought to weaken HTS’s control over Idlib, which remains one of the last strongholds of armed opposition in Syria.

Iran’s Strategic Interests in Syria: Countering HTS and Regional Influence

Iran’s involvement in Syria is driven by a combination of religious, strategic, and geopolitical objectives. As a key ally of Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government, Iran has provided substantial military, financial, and logistical support to Syrian forces, particularly through the deployment of military advisors, weapons, and the recruitment of Shia militias.

For Iran, Syria is a crucial component of its “Axis of Resistance,” a network of Shia-aligned governments and militias that stretches from Tehran to Beirut. Syria serves as a vital conduit for Iranian influence in the region, allowing Iran to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and maintain its role as a dominant player in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Iran also shares concerns with Russia about the rise of Islamist extremist groups such as HTS, which challenge both the Assad regime and the broader Shia axis. While Iran and Russia have sometimes pursued divergent strategies, they share a common goal in defeating HTS and similar groups. However, Iran’s involvement has often been characterized by a more overtly sectarian approach, with the use of Shia militias like the Fatemiyoun Division and the Zaynabiyoun Brigade playing a key role in combating HTS forces.

The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: Ideology and Military Strategy

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist jihadist group primarily active in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, has become a significant force in the Syrian Civil War. Originally formed as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2012, HTS was initially an affiliate of al-Qaeda. However, over time, the group has distanced itself from al-Qaeda in an attempt to gain more local support and regional legitimacy.

HTS’s main objective is the establishment of an Islamic state in Syria, governed by Sharia law. The group has adopted a highly conservative interpretation of Islam and has utilized violence and terror to achieve its goals. Despite its opposition to Assad, HTS does not seek a democratic Syria but rather a state based on its extremist vision. This ideological stance makes HTS a significant threat to both the Syrian regime and its Russian and Iranian backers, who see the group as a destabilizing force.

Militarily, HTS is known for its guerrilla tactics, well-coordinated attacks, and the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Its control over Idlib has been a significant obstacle to efforts by Russia and Iran to consolidate Assad’s hold over the country. Russian and Syrian airstrikes have targeted HTS positions, but the group has managed to hold onto parts of Idlib despite the onslaught, making it one of the most resilient factions in the Syrian conflict.

The Geopolitical Implications: Regional Power Struggles and the Future of Syria

The ongoing conflict between Syria, Iran, Russia, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has far-reaching geopolitical implications. The involvement of Iran and Russia in Syria has helped tip the balance of power in favor of Assad’s regime, but their alliance also reflects a broader struggle for influence in the Middle East.

The conflict has not only drawn in regional players such as Turkey, which supports various rebel groups, and Israel, which opposes Iranian entrenchment in Syria, but it has also become a battleground for global powers. The United States, for example, has supported Kurdish forces and has opposed both Assad’s regime and Iran’s regional ambitions. This web of alliances and enmities has created a highly volatile situation, with each actor pursuing its interests at the expense of others.

As for the future of Syria, it remains uncertain. The persistence of HTS in Idlib, coupled with the ongoing military operations by Iranian and Russian-backed forces, suggests that the conflict is far from over. With no clear path to a political resolution, Syria’s fate may continue to be shaped by the actions of these foreign powers, and the country’s future will likely depend on the outcome of this complex, multi-sided struggle.

Conclusion: The Ongoing Battle for Syria’s Future

The conflict between Syria, Iran, Russia, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a microcosm of the larger geopolitical struggle in the Middle East. While Russia and Iran remain steadfast allies of Bashar al-Assad, their shared interests in combating HTS and other jihadist groups underscore the complexity of the Syrian Civil War. The future of Syria remains uncertain, but the stakes for regional stability and international influence are higher than ever.